Moore's Law: Performance and Power Dissipation


Laszlo B. Kish Department of Electrical Engineeering, Texas A&M University

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Moore's law predicts that the number of transistors in a chip will grow exponentially in time. Exponents giving the best fit of various chip families suggest an 18-month transistor number doubling time. If Moore's law of miniaturization will be followed below the size of 40 nm, physics will impose fundamental and practical limits of performance because of shrinking noise margin, increasing and quickening noise, and increasing power dissipation. It is important to locate the fundamental aspects of the problem, to explore relevant practical problems and possible solutions, and to investigate this situation not only in microelectronics, such as complementer metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS), but also in single-electron transistor (SET)-based nanoelectronics and even in quantum informatics applications. Recent studies show that quantum computers are not satisfactory tools to solve these problems of general-purpose data handling, and that the fundamental limits governing classical (CMOS) computers allow a much better performance than possible quantum computers.